COAMPS-TC Deterministic, Ensemble, and Nowcast Model Support

Team Members

Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)

• Jim Doyle
• Hao Jin
• Jon Moskaitis

Team Objectives

Run COAMPS-TC (Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone) and the 11-member ensemble at high horizontal resolution (4 km) in real time during the 2022-2024 Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons.

Produce approximately 3 hindcasts per year, with accurate tropical cyclone track, size and intensity, over the course of 3 years (for 9 total) for retrospective analysis given highly accurate atmospheric reforecasts and reanalyses.

Facilitate ingestion and analysis of the COAMPS-TC fields in real time for utilization by other teams.

Variables produced will include:

• 10-m Winds
• Surface Relative Humidity
• Surface Pressure
• Surface Wind Stresses
• 2-m Air Temperature
• Long Wave and Short Wave Radiation at the Surface
• Surface Latent and Sensible Heat Fluxes
• Surface Net Radiation
• Hourly Precipitation

Newest Updates

Validation of COAMPS-TC forecasts of Hurricane Ian: Florida landfall

Jon Moskaitis, Will Komaromi, and James Doyle (NRL-Monterey)
October 5, 2022

COAMPS-TC Real-time Forecast Support for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season is just around the corner, officially beginning on June 1. New for this season, NRL-Monterey will provide deterministic COAMPS-TC® (Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System – Tropical Cyclone) forecast fields in real-time to NOPP Hurricane Coastal Impacts project partners, for the purpose of forcing surge/inundation/wave model forecasts for landfalling Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs).